The January report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released last Thursday, once again surprised the soybean market and supported futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). In Brazil, the impact was limited by the decline in the dollar against the real. While the market was expecting a small increase in US production and stocks for the 2022/23 season, USDA brought relevant cuts to both numbers, surprising players. Such cuts brought a bullish bias to the report, which impacted the CBOT futures contracts.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must hit 4.276 bln bushels in 2022/23, equivalent to 116.4 mln tons. Yield was indicated at 49.5 bushels per acre. In December, forecasts were 4.346 bln (118.3 mln tons) and 50.2 bu/acre, respectively. The market had forecast 4.360 bln bushels or 118.66 mln tons.
Ending stocks are projected at 210 mln bushels or 5.71 mln tons, against 220 mln bushels in December – 5.99 mln tons. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 236 mln or 6.42 mln tons. USDA indicated the crush at 2.245 bln bushels (61.09 mln tons), unchanged from December. Exports were reduced from 2.045 bln (55.66 mln tons) to 1.99 bln bushels (54.16 mln tons).
The report projected the world soybean crop in 2022/23 at 388 mln tons. In December, the projection was 391.17 mln tons. Ending stocks are estimated at 103.52 mln tons, against 102.71 mln tons in December. The market was expecting ending stocks of 101.9 mln tons.
USDA projects the US production at 116.4 mln tons, below the 118.3 mln forecast in December, as already mentioned. For production, the crop was raised from 152 to 153 mln tons for Brazil and lowered from 49.5 to 45.5 mln tons for Argentina.
China is expected to import 96 mln tons, down 2 mln from the December estimate.
