Porto Alegre, December 12, 2023 – The December report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) focused the market’s attention in recent days, but the new numbers did not have a relevant impact on Chicago. The market did not expect relevant changes in the US numbers, which was confirmed by the Department. Regarding the estimate for the Brazilian crop, USDA confirmed the bias expected by the market and lowered production, but the cut was considered small, not bringing relevant changes to the South American supply. These facts resulted in a neutral report for CBOT futures contracts.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must hit 4.129 bln bushels in 2023/24, equivalent to 112.37 mln tons. Yield was indicated at 49.9 bushels per acre. There were no changes compared to the previous report.
Ending stocks are projected at 245 mln bushels or 6.67 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 242 mln or 6.58 mln tons. USDA maintained the November number. USDA also repeated the crush estimate at 2.3 bln bushels (62.59 mln tons). The estimate for exports remained at 1.755 bln bushels (47.76 mln tons).
Regarding the global picture, USDA projected a global soybean crop in 2023/24 of 398.88 mln tons. In November, the forecast was 400.42 mln. Ending stocks were reduced from 114.51 to 114.21 mln tons. The market was expecting 112.9 mln tons.
The USDA projection is for the US crop of 112.4 mln tons, as already mentioned. The Brazilian crop was projected at 161 mln tons, down 2 mln tons from the previous estimate. For Argentina, the forecast is for the production of 48 mln tons, without changes. China should import 102 mln tons, compared to 100 mln estimated in November.
Global stocks in 2022/23 are estimated at 101.92 mln tons, while the market was betting on 100.3 mln tons.
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