Porto Alegre, April 12, 2021 – The April report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) focused the market’s attention on Friday (9), bringing some surprises. Amid them, USDA maintained the estimate for US stocks in 2020/21, while the market was betting on cuts. It also repeated the estimate for the Argentine crop, while a decrease was expected. Moreover, it raised the forecast for Brazil’s production to a higher-than-expected level. Completing the set of surprises, the Department increased the world production and stocks.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must hit 4.135 billion bushels in 2020/21, equivalent to 112.53 mln tons, repeating the previous report.
US final stocks are estimated at 120 mln bushels or 3.26 mln tons, unchanged. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 119 mln or 3.24 mln tons.
USDA indicated the crush at 2.19 billion bushels (59.6 mln tons) and exports of 2.28 billion (62.05 mln tons). In March, estimates had pointed to 2.2 billion (59.87 mln tons) and 2.25 billion bushels (61.23 mln tons), respectively.
As for the world scenario, the report projected a global soybean crop in 2020/21 of 363.19 mln tons. In March, the number was 361.82 mln tons. Final stocks are estimated at 86.87 mln tons. The market expected final stocks of 83.7 mln tons. In March, the forecast was 83.74 mln tons.
USDA projects a US crop of 112.55 mln tons, as commented. For Brazil, the forecast is for a production of 136 mln tons, against 134 mln in March. The market was betting on 134.4 mln tons.
Argentina must produce 47.5 mln tons, repeating the previous forecast. The market had estimated a cut to 46.8 mln tons. China’s import forecast was maintained at 100 mln tons.
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