Porto Alegre, December 5, 2023 – Brazilian soybean exports will likely hit 100 mln tons in 2024, repeating the volume indicated for 2023. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand framework, released by SAFRAS & Mercado on December 1. In the previous report, released in September, the projections were at 99 mln and 98 mln, respectively. Although the current projection indicates the maintenance of the volume to be exported by Brazil in 2024, negative adjustments may still occur in the coming few months due to the size of Argentine production, which still needs confirmation. Furthermore, the weather problems registered in the states in the center and northern half of the country this season could reduce Brazilian supply, which could also impact the balance available for exports in 2024.
According to SAFRAS, the crush must reach 54 mln tons in 2024 and 53 mln tons in 2023, with an increase of 2% between one season and the other. In September, projections were at 55 mln and 53 mln tons, respectively.
SAFRAS indicates imports of 110 thousand tons in 2024, against 180 thousand tons in 2023.
For the 2024 season, the total supply of soybeans is expected to increase by 3%, reaching 166.724 mln tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 157.7 mln tons, growing 1% over the previous year. Therefore, ending stocks are expected to rise by 72%, from 5.237 mln to 9.024 mln tons.
SAFRAS estimates soymeal production at 41.45 mln tons in 2024, 2% higher. Exports are forecast to fall 6% to 21 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 18.5 mln, increasing by 3%. Stocks are expected to rise 80% to 4.38 mln tons.
Soyoil production is forecast to increase by 1% to 10.9 mln tons. Brazil is likely to export 1.8 mln tons, a decline of 16%. Domestic consumption should rise 8% to 9.3 mln tons. The use for biodiesel is expected to increase by 13% to 4.5 mln tons. The forecast is for stocks to fall 28% to 460 thousand tons.
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