Porto Alegre, March 2, 2022 – The planting of the Brazilian second crop is progressing very well in most producing regions. Some areas planted later, others earlier, but all within a good planting window and in good conditions for initial development. The exception is two states: Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, which have suffered from La Nina since the 2021 second crop, do not have soil water reserve, and go through a late summer of 2022 with below-normal rainfall. The situation could become serious if March continues with very poor rains, perhaps even bringing losses during the development stage, and with a cut in the area to be planted.
The second crop plantations are advancing very well in the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and São Paulo. The rains decreased last week, the soybean harvest is advancing more quickly, and then the corn planting. Of course, in some locations there is still a lot of moisture, difficulty in dealing with machines, but there is still time to plant the second crop. This makes it clear that the first crops in Mato Grosso will be reaped from June 20 and that the height of the harvest will be in July/August. In other regions, the first crops arrive in July, with the height of the harvest in August/September.
Paraguay has an excellent projection of planted area. Some sources point to up to 1 million hectares for the country in this 2022 second crop. Based on data from input companies, we arrive at 782 thousand hectares. Soybean losses in the summer crop certainly led to the replanting of soybeans, but in many areas corn was chosen due to production safety. Production potential would exceed 6 million tons this year. The climate in the country continues with discontinued rains. Crops are developing, but there is no water reserve from the summer. Therefore, the country will need a moist fall to guarantee this year’s production. Planting is practically over.
The situation is serious in second-crop regions of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. As we have pointed out in our last reports, the summer has accumulated rains far below normal, there is no water reserve being taken into the fall, and, as in Paraguay, the fall will need to be moist. The point is that for this next quarter climate models are pointing to rainfall below normal for the second-crop axis involving Paraguay, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná. Perhaps, the northern side of Mato Grosso do Sul can still have a good condition in March. We must understand, then, that the presence of La Nina and the existing forecasts point to a worrying situation for the second crop in these locations.
At this point, planting is developing well between the region of Lago de Itaipu and Dois Vizinhos. These crops suffer from below-normal rains in February, but they can stand it. The focus is that March will need very good rains for the maintenance and recovery of these crops already planted. From Toledo towards Naviraí as far as São Gabriel, the situation becomes critical. Many areas without planting, planted without rain, or in early development with visible signs of development stagnated by water scarcity or mortality of plants. In many areas, planting is at a standstill. Between Maringá and the northwest of the state, some rains over the week may have favored the resumption of planting. In the north of Paraná and Vale do Paranapanema, the rains are scattered, and planting has not yet progressed.
The picture is critical for these regions. We have 42% of the planted area in the two states at the end of February. Nearly 60% of the area will be planted in March, under the climatic risks of frost until June. If the rains remain weak in March, it will not be surprising if some growers give up the second crop and see wheat as a safer option for planting in May. Insurance companies are no longer issuing policies for the second crop in these regions. So, attention to the climate is evident going forward.
Agência SAFRAS Latam
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