The weather has not disturbed, and the harvest resumed at a good pace last week, with more accelerated work compared to the same period last year. SAFRAS’ weekly monitoring indicates that until July 4, Brazil reaped 52% of the 23/24 crop, which corresponds to an increase of 7% compared to last week. Work exceeded the same period last year, when growers had reaped 48% of the crop, but it is still below the five-year average of 56%.
The arabica harvest reaches 43% of the expected output, against 40% at the same time last year and 47% on the five-year average. Besides being faster, the production result is positively surprising, with growers reaping more than expected. The quality profile of the crop is also positive, although the projection of growing moisture for the coming few months generates some concern.
The conillon harvest is 69% complete, above the 63% at the same time last year, but still below the five-year average of 74%. The still preliminary reading is that production will be a little lower than expected, especially in Espírito Santo.
The advance of a cold front associated with an extratropical cyclone in the south of the country should raise the level of moisture in the state of Paraná, but the rains should not move strongly toward the Southeast region, where coffee production in Brazil is concentrated. Thus, the forecast is for low moisture in the week between July 6 and 12 for coffee regions, which should continue favoring the harvest and drying. Moisture may increase in part of the state of São Paulo in the week of July 13 to 19.
