Good cup in the south of Minas Gerais increases the negative distance from the 5-year average for the month of October (BRL 849.01). Coffee from the south of Minas Gerais is once again trading below the reference of BRL 800 per bag, which reinforces the bearish signs. The domestic market follows the fall in NY, without finding enough support in the bullish volatility of the dollar to contain the pressure coming from abroad. The fact is that the more difficult external scenario justifies the shorter demand, which generates additional negative pressure on internal prices. On the other hand, we can see a little more interest on the sellers’ side, after surpassing the climatic stress with the high temperatures at the beginning of the spring. Good rains last week, benefiting Brazil’s coffee crops, reinforced the indications of a Brazilian crop in 2024 crop greater than that reaped this year, also influencing the sales attitude and negatively weighing on prices.
Fine cup and cherry coffee also declined and are following the behavior of good cup, despite the greater withdrawal of sellers. Weak demand and the arrival of the new season in Colombia and Central America end up weighing against the prices of better cups. Rio cup from Matas de Minas is supported by lower availability and demand from the local industry. It seeks to sustain itself above the line of BRL 700 per bag. However, it cannot go very far due to the more cautious behavior of buyers. The price is currently around BRL 705 per bag.
Conillon is moving sideways, finding some support in the demand for roasted and ground coffee. The growth in supply, with greater selling interest from producers, ends up inhibiting upward movements. The expectation of rising external competition because of the increase in Vietnam’s coffee supply, together with the domestic industry’s measured stance, given the still weak signals from the local economy, end up influencing this behavior of sellers. Conillon type 7/8 in Colatina costs around BRL 640 per bag.
